Puzzle 01: Stagflation

With inflation in booster mode and nominal rates low, the real interest rate remains an interesting indicator when reading the economic development in the US. One possible interpretation is that we are looking at the first indicators of stagflation. …


The big unwinding on risk

If you watched the financial markets in the last months, you could clearly observe an overall trend in unwinding risk. It was not visible in the major markets. But you could see a lot of interesting things happening.

Private Equity funds didn’t go on a spree, but they were converting…


Today the financial times featured an article about online ads and that they seem to work less and less and most online users find them annoying. Why is that? And is it time to re-think the advertising business?

Market Penetration Peak

It’s pay to play market running on auctions. If…


After a rather boring last week, this week has taken investors for quite a ride. While risk spreads are still fairly low and compressed, the attention has been seen in rising safe haven bond yields crawling back up to higher levels. …


Financial times ran an interesting article today about China’s digital currency and mentioned the topic of control.

The dark money pool and unrecorded work and services

A key argument for central bank cryptocurrency is that it allows to sidestep the many issues of dark money circulating in the local economy. One topic is mostly concerned with tax evasion. Someone…


One year after Covid-19 and the remote work utopia has become mainstream ready as companies ramp up their capabilities in managing employees on remote operations stacks. Regulation will follow to make the new utopia happen.

What exactly is this utopia?

The Utopia for the Employed

The pictures drawn are romantic…


This summarizes some ideas on trained fuzzy learning.

Learning and Problem Solving

In my first tutoring class that I held to economics students on mathematics, I wanted to have a direct discussion on how individuals think about mathematics and what mental representations they use to solve specific problems. …


Just was reading about logic, stumbled onto Searle and remembered an old paper I wrote on AI concepts.

When we look back on the early days of AI, the Turing Test was the big “hard AI” nut to crack. But our understanding of artificial intelligence has sence been refined. …


Macroeconomics is not only about today and tomorrow’s economic numbers. When thinking about technology bets in trading and what happens in the world, the very long view sometimes helps adding perspective. So this time we look at a very long view.

Out of nothing, there comes the explosion of energy…


Let’s look into banking in the fiat system without any government interference.

Basic bank concept:

So you have let’s say five banks. Each have basic deposit accounts and people bring their money in so it is not stolen from them. The bank keeps this for them. They pay the bank…

Ben Scherer

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